NAMA Strategic Intelligence Solutions’ poll projects that about 34.97% of Jordanians are expected to vote in the next parliamentary elections, approximately 1.5 million voters. Of those, 1.2 million is expected to vote for political parties.
Since the elections law determined a 2.5 percent threshold, a single political party needs to accumulate approximately 37,500 votes to be able to compete. This is likely to be challenging for the parties since the approximate number of votes needed (about 37,500) is calculated based on the total number of projected voters (about 1.5 million) rather than the projected number of those who will vote for parties (about 1.2 million).
It is expected that the projected number of party voters is likely to increase if parties were to address specific key issues of concern. NAMA’s survey highlights that nearly half of those who indicated they will not vote for political partes in September suggested that parties are ineffective and rarely deliver on their promises. A third attributed their decision to being unconvinced or uninterested in political parties or simply unaware of their goals and orientations.
When asked about the top action a Jordanian political party could take to increase their trust, 27.5 percent of Jordanians referred to job creation, suggesting the extent to which unemployment remains Jordanians’ most pressing challenge. About 21.2 percent said that there was not anything that could increase their trust, highlighting the magnitude of effort needed from the parties to engage Jordanians.
About 24 percent of Jordanians want political parties to deliver on their campaign promises, which could entail that the success of the elections and subsequent performance of parties in parliament and beyond is likely to reflect in increased engagement among Jordanians who want to see tangible results.
NAMA’s poll reveals that the parliament has achieved tangible results over its four-year term – according to Jordanians, but their awareness remains low. When asked about the parliament’s biggest achievements over the past four years, 80 percent of Jordanians said the parliament has not achieved anything. While top-of-the-mind awareness of achievements is low, Jordanians’ perceptions of specific laws passed by the parliament tells a different story.
NAMA’s survey shows 63.4 percent of Jordanians agree with most laws passed over the past four years, with laws pertaining to law and order and to personal status enjoying the support of about 73.2 percent of Jordanians, compared to 58 percent for laws related to the economy and 56 percent for governance.
More specifically, 87 percent of Jordanians agree with the personal data protection law, 81 percent agree with the cybercrimes law, 71.4 percent agree with the conscription and reserve service law, 71 percent agree with the law establishing Sharia courts, 70.7 percent agree with the social development law, 69.4 percent agree with the child rights law, 67.4 percent agree with the labor law, 66.2 percent agree with the traffic law, 66 percent agree with law on partnership projects between the public and private sectors, 65.3 percent agree with the integrity and anti-corruption law, 64 percent agree with the general amnesty law, 53.4 percent agree with the elections law, 52.8 percent agree with the law regulating the investment environment, 33.4 percent agree with the political parties law, and 32.5 percent agree with the general tax law.
The reasons why Jordanians do not recognize the reforms unless prompted could be related to how they consume information. NAMA’s poll reveals a significant decrease in the percent of Jordanians who rely on government officials for information and news, decreasing from 16 percent of Jordanians in NAMA’s November 2023 poll to just 3 percent.
The same can be said for newspapers (1 percent) and radio stations (4.5 percent), compared to 36 percent for news websites, 42 percent for word of mouth from friends and family, and 72 percent for Facebook. While 45 percent named a Jordanian media personality they follow for news, most personalities they named do not work on, or cover, Jordanian affairs.
NAMA’s poll underscores the significance of enhancing official messaging to protect Jordanians from misinformation. Equally important is the need for the elections as well as the next four years of parliament to fulfil the objectives set forth by the Royal Committee to Modernize the Political System. It is therefore imperative for political parties to continue engaging citizens after the elections and to deliver on their campaign messages to enhance the level and quality of political participation among Jordanians.
NAMA conducted the survey over a nationally representative sample of 1,525 Jordanians interviewed face-to-face in early May, with a ±2.5 percent margin of error and 95 percent confidence rate.